Replacing one measure by an equivalent one reweights probability without altering which events are negligible. On a filtered space the reweighting is dynamic, carried by a positive martingale whose terminal value is the Radon-Nikodym density. The same device removes a drift from a Brownian motion and converts a model under the physical measure into a model under which discounted prices are martingales.
#The density process
Let on with density , a positive integrable random variable with . Define the density process for .
The density process is a positive -martingale, and on the restriction of has -density , that is for .
As a conditional expectation of a fixed integrable variable, is a martingale by the tower property, . It is strictly positive, for if then , which with a.s. forces , so -a.s. and the division by below is legitimate. For the defining property of conditional expectation gives , where the middle equality is the defining change of measure on , valid for because .
#The Bayes rule
For and an -measurable , equivalently ,
The right side is -measurable, so it suffices to check the averaging identity over an arbitrary . Extending Proposition 1 from indicators to -measurable by monotone convergence, and then to integrable by splitting into positive and negative parts, gives ; here with , so every term is finite. Using this at level , then the tower property,
and the last expression equals by Proposition 1 at level . The two sides agree over every , which is Equation (1).
#Girsanov's theorem
The density that removes a drift is a Doleans (stochastic) exponential. For a predictable with a.s., so that the Ito integral and the exponential are defined, the Doleans exponential of the Brownian integral is
the unique solution of . It is a positive local martingale, and a true martingale under the Novikov condition [1].
Let be a -Brownian motion and let from Equation (3) be a martingale on . Define by . Then
is a Brownian motion under .
By Levy's characterization it suffices that is a continuous -local martingale with . The drift is continuous of finite variation, so it has zero quadratic variation and contributes nothing to the bracket; hence , which equals -a.s. This bracket is a single random variable, computed from -a.s. limits of squared increments, so the identity is a -a.s. statement; since share the same null sets it holds -a.s., as Levy under requires. For the martingale property, the product rule applied to gives . The bracket sees only the local-martingale parts, of and of , so . Substituting this together with and , the drift terms cancel, leaving , a driftless Ito integral whose integrand is continuous and adapted, hence locally bounded, so by localization is a continuous -local martingale. Since is a strictly positive -martingale and is a -local martingale, is a -local martingale, because multiplication by is a bijection between -local martingales and -local martingales, the local form of the Bayes correspondence of Theorem 2 [2]. That is exactly the -local martingale property that Levy's characterization consumes.
Choosing to cancel the drift of a discounted price turns that price into a -martingale, so is an equivalent martingale measure. The density is the likelihood ratio between the physical and pricing measures.