Brainteasers & Puzzles

One Extra Coin

I toss four coins and you toss five. How likely are you to end up with strictly more heads than I do?

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I toss four fair coins and you toss five. You win if you get strictly more heads than I do. What is the probability that you win?

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#More heads or more tails, exactly one

Write HYH_Y for your head count out of five and HMH_M for mine out of four. You get strictly more heads when HY>HMH_Y > H_M. You get strictly more tails when 5HY>4HM5 - H_Y > 4 - H_M, which rearranges to HYHMH_Y \le H_M. These two conditions, HY>HMH_Y > H_M and HYHMH_Y \le H_M, partition every outcome, so exactly one of them holds on any toss.

#Symmetry splits it evenly

Flipping every coin from heads to tails swaps the two events and leaves all probabilities untouched, since a fair coin treats heads and tails alike. So P(more heads)\PP(\text{more heads}) equals P(more tails)\PP(\text{more tails}), and because the two cover all outcomes between them,

P(you win)=12.(1)\PP(\text{you win}) = \frac{1}{2}. \tag{1}
flip every coinyou get more headsyou get more tails
With five coins against four, exactly one of more heads or more tails happens. Flipping every coin turns one into the other and keeps the odds the same, so each is exactly one half.

#Read it off

The answer is exactly 12\tfrac{1}{2}, independent of how many coins are in play, as long as you toss one more than I do. That single extra coin is exactly what tips every would-be tie in your favor.