Probability and Statistics

Expected Value of Max and Min

For n independent uniforms the maximum has CDF z^n and mean n/(n+1), the minimum mirrors it with mean 1/(n+1), and the sorted draws cut [0,1] into n+1 gaps of equal expected length, which locates every order statistic at once.

solvedeasy1 min

Let X1,X2,…,XnX_1, X_2, \dots, X_n be independent random variables, each uniform on [0,1][0,1]. Find the cumulative distribution function, the density, and the expected value of the maximum Zn=max⁡(X1,…,Xn)Z_n = \max(X_1, \dots, X_n) and of the minimum Yn=min⁡(X1,…,Xn)Y_n = \min(X_1, \dots, X_n).

Reveal solutionHide solution

#The maximum

The maximum is at most zz exactly when every draw is at most zz. Independence turns that into a product,

FZ(z)=P(Zn≤z)=∏i=1nP(Xi≤z)=z n,z∈[0,1].(1)F_{Z}(z) = \PP(Z_n \le z) = \prod_{i=1}^{n} \PP(X_i \le z) = z^{\,n}, \qquad z \in [0,1]. \tag*{(1)}(1)

Differentiating gives the density, and integrating against it gives the mean,

fZ(z)=n z n−1,E[Zn]=∫01z⋅n z n−1 dz=nn+1.(2)f_{Z}(z) = n\,z^{\,n-1}, \qquad \E[Z_n] = \int_0^1 z \cdot n\,z^{\,n-1}\,dz = \frac{n}{n+1}. \tag*{(2)}(2)

#The minimum

The minimum is at least yy exactly when every draw is at least yy, so the survival function is the clean product this time,

P(Yn≥y)=∏i=1nP(Xi≥y)=(1−y) n,FY(y)=1−(1−y) n.(3)\PP(Y_n \ge y) = \prod_{i=1}^{n} \PP(X_i \ge y) = (1-y)^{\,n}, \qquad F_{Y}(y) = 1 - (1-y)^{\,n}. \tag*{(3)}(3)

Differentiating and integrating as before,

fY(y)=n (1−y) n−1,E[Yn]=∫01y⋅n (1−y) n−1 dy=1n+1.(4)f_{Y}(y) = n\,(1-y)^{\,n-1}, \qquad \E[Y_n] = \int_0^1 y \cdot n\,(1-y)^{\,n-1}\,dy = \frac{1}{n+1}. \tag*{(4)}(4)
1/65/6minmax01
With five draws the minimum crowds toward 0 and the maximum toward 1. Their densities are mirror images, and the means land at 1/6 and 5/6, symmetric about the midpoint.

#One picture ties them together

Each 1−Xi1 - X_i is again uniform, and Yn=1−max⁡i(1−Xi)Y_n = 1 - \max_i(1 - X_i), so the minimum is the maximum reflected through 12\tfrac{1}{2}. That forces E[Yn]=1−E[Zn]=1n+1\E[Y_n] = 1 - \E[Z_n] = \tfrac{1}{n+1} and explains the mirror symmetry of the two densities.

The cleanest reading is the gap picture. The nn sorted draws split [0,1][0,1] into n+1n+1 intervals whose expected lengths are all equal to 1n+1\tfrac{1}{n+1}, so the kk-th smallest sits at height kn+1\tfrac{k}{n+1}. The minimum is the first cut at 1n+1\tfrac{1}{n+1} and the maximum the last at nn+1\tfrac{n}{n+1}.