Probability & Statistics

Brownian Exit Time

A Brownian motion starts at 0 and runs until it first reaches +1 or -1. What is its expected exit time?

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Let BtB_t be a standard Brownian motion started at 00, and let τ\tau be the first time it reaches either +1+1 or 1-1. What is the mean of τ\tau?

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#A martingale built from the path

For standard Brownian motion the process Bt2tB_t^2 - t is a martingale, because the variance of BtB_t grows exactly like tt. Started at 00, this process begins at the value 00.

#Stop at the barrier

At the exit time τ\tau the path sits on a barrier, so Bτ2=1B_\tau^2 = 1 no matter which side it hits. Optional stopping keeps the martingale's mean pinned at its starting value,

E[Bτ2τ]=0E[τ]=E[Bτ2]=1.(1)\E[B_\tau^2 - \tau] = 0 \quad\Longrightarrow\quad \E[\tau] = \E[B_\tau^2] = 1. \tag{1}
+10-1
Because B_t squared minus t is a martingale and the path squares to 1 the moment it is absorbed, optional stopping turns the expected hitting time into the expected squared position, which is 1.

#Read it off

E[τ]=1.(2)\E[\tau] = 1. \tag{2}

More generally, with barriers at a-a and bb the same martingale gives an expected exit time of abab, the product of the two distances. Symmetric barriers at ±1\pm 1 make that product simply 11.